Skip to content

Question

Math 6010 • Linear Models

1994 • Question 6

Let \(0\le X_n\le 1\) be adapted to \(\mathcal F_n\). Let \(\alpha ,\beta >0\) with \(\alpha +\beta =1\) and suppose \[ \mathbb {P}(X_{n+1}=\alpha +\beta X_n\mid \mathcal F_n)=X_n \] \[ \mathbb {P}(X_{n+1}=\beta X_n\mid \mathcal F_n)=1-X_n. \]

(a) Show that \(\mathbb {P}\{\lim _{n\to \infty }X_n=0\text { or }1\}=1\).

(b) Show that if \(X_0=\theta \), then \(\mathbb {P}\{\lim _{n\to \infty }X_n=1\}=\theta \).

Raw LaTeX

Let \(0\le X_n\le 1\) be adapted to \(\mathcal F_n\). Let
\(\alpha,\beta>0\) with \(\alpha+\beta=1\) and suppose
\[
\Prob(X_{n+1}=\alpha+\beta X_n\mid\mathcal F_n)=X_n
\]
\[
\Prob(X_{n+1}=\beta X_n\mid\mathcal F_n)=1-X_n.
\]

(a) Show that \(\Prob\{\lim_{n\to\infty}X_n=0\text{ or }1\}=1\).

(b) Show that if \(X_0=\theta\), then
\(\Prob\{\lim_{n\to\infty}X_n=1\}=\theta\).